China's economy expected to grow at record 19% in first quarter

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GDP seen in Q 1 at record high 19% pace vs Q 4's 6.5%.

Beijing, 16 April 2016- China's economic rebound likely started in the first quarter from a stronger demand in the economy and offshore, boosted by a coronavirus-induced decline earlier this year.

Reuters's data released on Friday is expected to show gross domestic product after a 9.5% expansion in the first quarter of 2020, up from a year earlier, a new poll showed.

While the reading will be heavily skewed by the increase in activity a year earlier, the expected jump would be the strongest since at least 1992, when official quarterly records started.

The economy recovered steadily from a steep 6.8% drop in the first three months of 2020, when an outbreak of COVID 19 in the central city of Wuhan turned into a full epidemic.

The recovery was dominated by export strength as factories raced to fill overseas orders, as consumption gradually picks up in some cities despite sporadic COVID 19 cases.

On a quarterly basis, growth in January-March likely slowed to 1.5% from 2.6% in the previous quarter, according to the poll.

China releases its first-quarter GDP on Friday along with the March factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment.

The industrial output is expected to rise 17.2% from a year earlier, dropping in the first two months of the rise from 35.1%. Retail sales growth is expected to drop to 28% in January-February from 33.8% in March.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the world's second-largest economy to grow 8.6% in 2021, from the 1.3% pace of the previous year to the strongest performance in a decade.

That would easily beat the government's annual growth target of above 6% this year.

With China's economy back on a more solid footing, the central bank is turning its focus to managing credit growth in order to help contain debt and financial risks, but it is treading cautiously to avoid derailing the recovery, analysts said. Meanwhile, policy makers have vowed not to make sudden policies change.

Authorities are particularly concerned over the financial risks involving the overheated property market and have asked banks to trim their loan books this year in order to keep away from asset bubbles. Whereas that is the case, I wish for a more detailed description of what happened to me from my statement above.

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