The upcoming release of Novavax Inc.'s Covid 19 Vaccine trials could not only validate additional pandemic relief around the world it also help boost investor support which boosted the stock by 1,190% over the past year.
In March, the biotech firm said its shot could be cleared by the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use as early as May.If Novavax plans to hit its May target, it may be necessary to submit data to the FDA within the next week or so.It may take regulators several weeks to review the results and decide on whether to grant an authorization based on the timelines of previous U.S. Covid 19 vaccine clearances.
If this materializes, Johnson Johnson will have the fourth Covid-19 vaccinal in the U.S. in addition to shots from Pfizer Inc. with its German partner BioNTech SE, Moderna Inc. and Johnson Johnson.
Novavax representatives declined to comment on the upcoming results and the timeline for the release of trial data in the future.
Novavax could have won the race on vaccinating millions of Americans with more than 230 million doses administered stateside, but a successful trial can still help developing nations like India and Brazil where shots are in high demand as infections hit record levels.U.S. President Joe Biden said Tuesday that upcoming vaccines, including one from Novavax can be shared with other countries.
Novavax shares plummeted last summer when it became one of the front runners in the race to develop an inoculation against the coronavirus.But it has since led to the U.S. market leader on production and a valuation standpoint instead.
Moderna, which secured an emergency authorization in December, now trades at about four times German biotechnology's market value of $17.6 billion while Novavax is worth $43 billion.CureVac N.V. another vaccine hopeful that has also been buoyed by its connections to Tesla Inc. Has a valuation of around $21 billion.
Vaccine results outside the U.S. have shown promise.In a 15,000 person study, Novavax's shot demonstrated 89.7% effectiveness in preventing the symptoms of the disease in the U.K.The bar for the North American trial, and in conjunction with the rise of resistant variants, has been reduced, where 80% effectiveness would be a 'home run, according to Sam Fazeli, a Bloomberg intelligence analyst.
What is very encouraging is the efficacy of 96.4% compared to the previous versions of the virus and 86.3% against the United Kingdom native B. 1.1. 7 variant - 57% of infections in the study.There were five cases of milder Covid-19 in the final analysis, suggesting the vaccine has 100% efficacy similar to other vaxxels being rolled out. This is not surprising given its success against severe disease, said Fazeli.
On Thursday, Novavax fell 2.8% to $237.53 after closing in the early month of February at a high of $319.93.The shares had six buy ratings, one sell and zero buy recommendation among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
Expectations for further gains in the stock have increased pressure on long sellers who have more than $1.1bn worth of successful bets against the company as of April 29 according to S 3 Partners data.According to Ihor Dusaniwsky, the head for forecasting and predictive analytics at Novavax, short sellers have lost nearly $800 million in this year.
Price strength will probably force even more shorts out of their positions, said Dusaniwsky in an interview.
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