Americans are starting to return to the workforce in big numbers, and that will likely show up in the March report of employment.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect to see 675,000 jobs added in March as the economy reopened more broadly, and the number of vaccinated people increased. The unemployment rate is projected to fall to 6% in February from 6.2% in October.
When it comes to the economy, things are looking up, said Shawn Snyder, Head of Investment Strategy at Citi U.S. He said Citigroup expects to create 600,000 jobs by March. But the whisper number around the street is closer to a million, so expectations are pretty high. The pay report is scheduled to be released on Friday at 8: 30 a.m.
ET. The bond market will be open for Good Friday, but the stock market will remain closed for a half day. In February, 379,000 jobs were added; that number would have been about 100,000 higher if not for winter storms that caused power outages in Texas and sub-freezing temperatures across the South, said Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist Stephen Stanley.
Those lost jobs could show up in March; I think March will be the first one of a string of very strong numbers. I 'm expecting 850,000 for payrolls and we could have unemployment rate down to 5.9%, Stanley said. It's not as strong as what we are likely to see in April and May.
I think we could see a string of three or four months in which we average over 1 million jobs to the economy. He expects the job market to return quickly, starting with the March Report. Stanley said there are already anecdotal signs that the leisure sector is having problems filling jobs, as are other areas. Manufacturing is starving for workers, he said.
The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to 64.7, the highest level since December 1983.
The economist also said he has been watching economic data for signs of inflation. Stanley expects to see prices rise because of the base effect of the last year's weakness as well as a burst in demand. Economists will be paying close attention to the jobs report's wage component to see if inflation is beginning to show up in wages.
They expect just a 0.1% increase in average hourly wages for March, after a 0.2% rise in February according to Dow Jones. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were still 10 million people employed in February as unemployed compared to 5.7 million a year before. At that time, the unemployment rate was a low 3.5%. Once people are vaccinated and schools reopen so parents do n't have to stay home with their children, I think you 're going to see literally millions of people come back into the labor force, Stanley said.
I think this ISM number is the first of what is going to be a very good series of long indicators. In the second quarter, economists expect an economic book as more people receive stimulus payments and vaccine shots.
As of Thursday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, more than 16% of the U.S. population was fully vaccinated: As states ease restrictions on travel, eating at restaurants and participating in other activities, more people are already traveling. With a reduction of time, Grant Thornton will begin increasing at restaurants, bars and gyms because of the work restrictions on leisure and hospitality, Diane Swonk said CEO of the Generic Occasions in the United States.
Swonk expects to see 1 million new jobs created in March, and some of that will be hired which would have taken place in February. It is a combination of February catch up and lifting restrictions. These are the two biggest things, Swonk said; Construction is one area that could see a drop in hiring after February's loss of 61,000 jobs, many due to weather.
In February, the leisure and hospitality industry opened 355,000 jobs as restaurants, hotels and gambling added.
But the sector was still down 3.5 million jobs, or 20.4%, from a year earlier.